Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(12:45) 7-M.King punts 70 yards to BAL 7, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model