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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model