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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model