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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 22
Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0
What Actually Happened
(12:44) 10-E.Sanders left guard to KC 22 for no gain (38-R.Parker).
The Three Options
GO
+1.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.10 EP
- 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
+0.77 EP
- 85% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
- 15% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT
-1.01 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
