Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DEN offense: -0.275 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.170 vs Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.274 EPA/dropback
- KC defense: -0.212 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- DEN defense: -0.375 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
DEN
KC
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:20 TD KC (9:20) (Shotgun) 25-J.Charles left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
- Q2 06:37 TD KC (6:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at KC 45. 22-M.Peters for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 13
- Q2 02:36 TD DEN (2:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 14
- Q2 00:54 TD DEN (:54) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 85-V.Green for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – KC 14
- Q3 09:51 FG KC (9:51) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 14 – KC 17
- Q3 03:23 FG DEN (3:23) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 17 – KC 17
- Q4 02:32 TD KC (2:32) 34-K.Davis left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – KC 23
- Q4 00:40 TD DEN (:40) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – KC 24
- Q4 00:35 TD DEN (:35) (Shotgun) 25-J.Charles up the middle to KC 21 for 1 yard (54-B.Marshall). FUMBLES (54-B.Marshall), RECOVERED by DEN-29-B.Roby at KC 21. 29-B.Roby for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. DEN 30 – KC 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 52%
(12:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to KC 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas ran ob at KC 21 for 8 yards (30-D.Bruton).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(6:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 56 yards to KC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 42 for 3 yards (51-T.Davis). PENALTY on KC-35-C.West, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 4 yards (48-S.Barrett). Denver challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 4 yards (16-B.Fowler). FUMBLES (16-B.Fowler), RECOVERED by DEN-51-T.Davis at KC 31. 51-T.Davis to KC 31 for no gain (35-C.West). Penalty on KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 85%
(12:44) 10-E.Sanders left guard to KC 22 for no gain (38-R.Parker).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 91%
(9:51) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%
(6:24) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to KC 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-D.Thomas.
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Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(5:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%
(3:23) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on DEN-51-T.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(14:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to KC 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thomas to KC 25 for 2 yards (52-C.Nelson). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.
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Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22%
(11:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to DEN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(10:02) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to KC 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-30-D.Bruton.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 65 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to KC 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-30-D.Bruton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.
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