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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 45

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-B.Colquitt punts 36 yards to KC 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model