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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 36

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.73 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model