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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on DEN-51-T.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model