Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 65

Denver Broncos 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to KC 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. PENALTY on DEN-30-D.Bruton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.54 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model