4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model