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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DET
74.7%
MIN
25.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.344 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.490 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.041 EPA/dropback
  • MIN defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DET 26
–
MIN 17
Projected margin: DET by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DET

Brandon Pettigrew TE Out Hamstring
DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Hip
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Shoulder
Caraun Reid DT Questionable Ankle
Matthew Stafford QB Probable Right Upper Arm
LaAdrian Waddle T Probable Elbow
Larry Warford G Probable Ankle
Darius Slay CB Probable Ankle
Golden Tate WR Probable Quadricep

MIN

Jerick McKinnon RB Probable Ankle
Shamar Stephen DT Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 16
–
MIN 26

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:29 TD MIN (10:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 14:31 TD MIN (14:31) (Run formation) 5-T.Bridgewater left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-94-E.Ansah, Defensive Offside, declined. DET 0 – MIN 13
  • Q2 07:16 FG DET (7:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – MIN 14
  • Q2 02:35 FG MIN (2:35) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 3 – MIN 17
  • Q2 00:42 TD DET (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 81-C.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 9 – MIN 17
  • Q3 08:56 TD MIN (8:56) 48-Z.Line up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – MIN 23
  • Q4 06:23 FG MIN (6:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 10 – MIN 26
  • Q4 01:54 TD DET (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-L.Joseph]. DET 16 – MIN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:35) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 19 for 7 yards (59-T.Whitehead).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (5:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 15-G.Tate. PENALTY on DET-83-T.Wright, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DET 19.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to 50, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-95-B.Copeland.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

    (14:31) (Run formation) 5-T.Bridgewater left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-94-E.Ansah, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (7:16) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (2:35) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:36) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at DET 34 for 31 yards (25-T.Riddick).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 36%

    (4:52) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to DET 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 16-L.Moore.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:55) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for 1 yard (42-I.Abdul-Quddus).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (12:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 42 yards to DET 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-G.Tate to DET 23 for 2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (6:23) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles left end pushed ob at MIN 42 for 9 yards (55-A.Barr). PENALTY on MIN-55-A.Barr, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 42.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 16-L.Moore to MIN 12 for 7 yards (23-T.Newman).