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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 88

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at DET 34 for 31 yards (25-T.Riddick).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model