4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to DET 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 16-L.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.00 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP