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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 51

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 26

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles left end pushed ob at MIN 42 for 9 yards (55-A.Barr). PENALTY on MIN-55-A.Barr, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 42.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.12 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model