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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 19

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 26

What Actually Happened

(2:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 16-L.Moore to MIN 12 for 7 yards (23-T.Newman).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP