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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model