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HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

HOU
29.8%
CAR
70.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.325 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.008 vs Ryan Mallett (HOU) +0.384 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Ryan Mallett in place of Brian Hoyer)
  • CAR offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

HOU 16
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

HOU

Lonnie Ballentine S Out Knee
Mike Mohamed LB Out Calf
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Out Calf
Arian Foster RB Out Groin
Duane Brown T Questionable Hand
Jeff Adams T Probable Abdomen
Christian Covington DT Probable Shoulder
Kevin Johnson CB Probable Thigh
Carlos Thompson LB Probable Concussion
Nate Washington WR Probable Abdomen

CAR

Daryl Williams T Out Knee
Luke Kuechly LB Doubtful Concussion
Richie Brockel TE Questionable Shoulder
Wes Horton DE Questionable Shoulder
Star Lotulelei DT Questionable Foot
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Groin
Jonathan Stewart RB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 17
–
CAR 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:00 FG HOU (8:00) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 11:30 TD CAR (11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 19-T.Ginn for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – CAR 6
  • Q2 05:28 FG CAR (5:28) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. HOU 3 – CAR 10
  • Q3 08:35 TD HOU (8:35) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short middle to 88-G.Graham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – CAR 10
  • Q3 01:10 TD CAR (1:10) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – CAR 16
  • Q4 09:02 TD CAR (9:02) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 10-C.Brown for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – CAR 23
  • Q4 06:38 TD HOU (6:38) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett scrambles right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – CAR 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:48) 8-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to HOU 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 28 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 44-J.Jansen).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (13:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to CAR 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:05) 8-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to HOU 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 34 for 15 yards (97-M.Addison). PENALTY on HOU-57-J.Tuggle, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 32.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (8:00) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:18) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to HOU 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 25 for no gain (21-T.Williams). PENALTY on HOU-21-D.Morris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 25.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short left to 41-J.Grimes to CAR 38 for 3 yards (54-S.Thompson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 47%

    (14:55) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 26 for 11 yards (50-A.Dent).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (10:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 39 for 17 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (5:28) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:44) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CAR 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (50-A.Dent).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:25) 8-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to HOU 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 30 for 12 yards (84-E.Dickson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to CAR 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 26 for 8 yards (29-A.Hal; 59-W.Mercilus). PENALTY on CAR-25-B.Benwikere, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 18.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (14:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-51-J.Simon.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:04) 8-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to HOU 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 32 for 15 yards (55-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (6:38) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett scrambles right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 62%

    (2:48) 9-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-J.Crick), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 76%

    (1:27) 22-C.Polk right tackle to CAR 26 for 3 yards (58-T.Davis).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.07 EP
    p(convert) 18% p(FG) 89%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass incomplete deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins.