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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 75

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 26 for 11 yards (50-A.Dent).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model