Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 89

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

(4:44) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CAR 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (50-A.Dent).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.45 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model