Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 62

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

(1:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.93 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model