Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 74

Houston Texans 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to CAR 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 26 for 8 yards (29-A.Hal; 59-W.Mercilus). PENALTY on CAR-25-B.Benwikere, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.09 EP
76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model