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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 59

Houston Texans 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.76 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP