Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 54

Houston Texans 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

(11:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-51-J.Simon.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model