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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 29
Houston Texans 17 – Carolina Panthers 24
What Actually Happened
(1:27) 22-C.Polk right tackle to CAR 26 for 3 yards (58-T.Davis).
The Three Options
GO
+1.43 EP
What Happened
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.94 EP
- 41% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.78 EP
KICK
+1.55 EP
Model's Pick
- 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
- 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
