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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 20

Houston Texans 17 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass incomplete deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 18% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.40 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 20, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.07 EP