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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 25

Houston Texans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model