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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 3-A.Franks 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model