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Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 16:05 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIA
58.6%
JAX
41.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.325 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.351 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
JAX 19
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIA

Dion Sims TE Out Concussion
Reshad Jones S Questionable Hamstring
Derrick Shelby DE Questionable Eye
Cameron Wake DE Questionable Hamstring
Olivier Vernon DE Probable Ankle

JAX

Andre Branch DE Out Knee
Dwayne Gratz CB Out Ankle
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Out Knee
Julius Thomas TE Out Hand
Johnathan Cyprien S Doubtful Finger
Toby Gerhart RB Doubtful Abdomen
Luke Joeckel T Questionable Ankle
Thurston Armbrister LB Questionable Back
Josh Evans S Probable Illness
Rashad Greene WR Probable Back
Marqise Lee WR Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
JAX 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 TD JAX (9:28) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 15-A.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 07:21 FG MIA (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 3 – JAX 7
  • Q1 03:23 FG JAX (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. MIA 3 – JAX 10
  • Q2 10:11 FG MIA (10:11) 3-A.Franks 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 6 – JAX 10
  • Q2 05:10 TD JAX (5:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 15-A.Robinson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Misi]. MIA 6 – JAX 16
  • Q2 01:55 TD MIA (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 34-D.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – JAX 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG JAX (:02) 2-J.Myers 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. MIA 13 – JAX 20
  • Q3 10:33 TD MIA (10:33) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 86-J.Stoneburner for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – JAX 20
  • Q4 00:43 FG JAX (:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. MIA 20 – JAX 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (3:23) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 52 yards to JAX 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-R.Greene to JAX 28 for 6 yards (52-K.Sheppard).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 22%

    (14:55) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 32 yards to MIA 20, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-L.Reynolds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%

    (10:11) 3-A.Franks 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:28) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-J.Landry to MIA 45 for 19 yards (52-L.Reynolds).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 85%

    (:22) 3-A.Franks 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (6:37) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:16) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to JAX 22, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:09) 19-B.Anger punts 53 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-J.Landry to MIA 36 for 7 yards (52-L.Reynolds).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 42%

    (12:37) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:16) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 55 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-J.Landry to MIA 24 for -1 yards (41-N.Marshall).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:39) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to JAX 10, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 34 for 24 yards.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:30) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 34 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-30-Z.Bowman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 33.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:53) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to JAX 22, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 13-R.Greene. PENALTY on MIA-34-D.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 40 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to JAX 32, Center-92-J.Denney. 41-N.Marshall to JAX 44 for 12 yards (49-Z.Vigil). Penalty on JAX-52-L.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 34.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 96%

    (:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 18-R.Matthews (50-T.Smith).