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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model