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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to JAX 22, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model