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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(12:37) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model