Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

(12:16) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 55 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 14-J.Landry to MIA 24 for -1 yards (41-N.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model