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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 51 yards to JAX 10, Center-92-J.Denney. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 34 for 24 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model