Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(8:30) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 34 yards to MIA 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-30-Z.Bowman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model