Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to JAX 22, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 13-R.Greene. PENALTY on MIA-34-D.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model