4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 40 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP