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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.54 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model