Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

(:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 18-R.Matthews (50-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP

What Happened

68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.23 EP
32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -1.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model