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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(:51) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-61-B.Goode. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 35 for 22 yards (8-T.Masthay). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +3.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model