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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 20:30 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SEA
14.6%
GB
85.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.415 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.582 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.159 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SEA 17
–
GB 30
Projected margin: GB by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Michael Morgan LB Out Hamstring
Garry Gilliam T Questionable Rib
Bruce Irvin LB Questionable Rib
Tharold Simon CB Questionable Toe
Will Tukuafu RB Questionable Foot
Michael Bennett DE Probable Ankle
Demarcus Dobbs DE Probable Back
Marshawn Lynch RB Probable Not Injury Related
Bobby Wagner LB Probable Ankle

GB

Bryan Bulaga T Out Knee
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Calf
Randall Cobb WR Probable Shoulder
Jayrone Elliott LB Probable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 17
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:51 TD GB (10:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 89-J.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-72-M.Bennett, Defensive Offside, declined. SEA 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 06:57 FG GB (6:57) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. SEA 0 – GB 10
  • Q1 03:13 FG SEA (3:13) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – GB 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG GB (:02) 2-M.Crosby 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. SEA 3 – GB 13
  • Q3 10:01 TD SEA (10:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 22-F.Jackson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – GB 13
  • Q3 06:53 TD SEA (6:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – GB 13
  • Q3 03:16 FG GB (3:16) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. SEA 17 – GB 16
  • Q4 09:28 TD GB (9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 82-R.Rodgers for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – GB 22
  • Q4 02:00 FG GB (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. SEA 17 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to SEA 44, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 55%

    (6:57) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 58%

    (3:13) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:51) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-61-B.Goode. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 35 for 22 yards (8-T.Masthay). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 42%

    (12:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to GB 11, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 34%

    (6:12) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to GB 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (2:48) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to SEA 24, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:16) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 2-M.Crosby 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 16 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 44 yards to SEA 46, Center-61-B.Goode. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 46 for no gain (91-J.Elliott).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (3:16) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 36 yards to GB 20, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.