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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to SEA 24, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.47 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP