Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

(1:16) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.15 EP
47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model