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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-M.Crosby 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +4.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP