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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 90

Green Bay Packers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 44 yards to SEA 46, Center-61-B.Goode. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 46 for no gain (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.20 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model