Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Green Bay Packers 16

(:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 36 yards to GB 20, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.46 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model