4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 95

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 39 yards to SEA 44, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -4.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.07 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model