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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for 1 yard (54-B.Hager; 38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.42 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model