4th & Data
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STL Away

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

STL
40.7%
WAS
59.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Nick Foles (LA): +0.222 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

STL 19
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

STL

Chase Reynolds RB Out Knee
Eugene Sims DE Out Knee
Todd Gurley RB Questionable Knee
Tre Mason RB Questionable Thigh
Daren Bates LB Probable Knee
Trumaine Johnson CB Probable Concussion

WAS

DeSean Jackson WR Out Hamstring
Justin Rogers CB Out Foot
Martrell Spaight LB Out Concussion
Jackson Jeffcoat LB Questionable Thigh
Tom Compton T Questionable Calf
Terrance Knighton DT Questionable Rib
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Quadricep
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Rib
Kory Lichtensteiger C Probable Finger
Trent Williams T Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 10
–
WAS 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:14 TD WAS (7:14) 31-M.Jones left tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 00:59 FG WAS (:59) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. STL 0 – WAS 10
  • Q2 03:07 TD WAS (3:07) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 88-P.Garcon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 0 – WAS 16
  • Q3 09:39 FG LA (9:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 3 – WAS 17
  • Q3 07:09 TD LA (7:09) 5-N.Foles pass deep middle to 18-K.Britt for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LA-18-K.Britt, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. STL 9 – WAS 17
  • Q4 02:43 TD WAS (2:43) 31-M.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 10 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to WAS 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 3 yards (15-B.Marquez).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (9:46) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to LA 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-59-T.Plummer.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to WAS 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 77%

    (:59) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 19 for -1 yards (12-S.Bailey).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:33) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to LA 36, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-57-N.Sundberg.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for 1 yard (54-B.Hager; 38-C.Davis).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for -1 yards (31-M.Alexander).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:29) 5-T.Way punts 18 yards to WAS 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:02) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to LA 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-59-T.Plummer.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%

    (9:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:29) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to LA 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-51-W.Compton.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (2:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-59-T.Plummer, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at WAS 17.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:28) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 23 for 10 yards (15-B.Marquez).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 12-S.Bailey [92-C.Baker].