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STL Away

St. Louis Rams

1-1 HC Jeff Fisher
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WAS Home

Washington Commanders

1-1 HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

STL
39.6%
WAS
60.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Nick Foles (LA): +0.222 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

STL 19 12–26
–
WAS 24 17–31
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

STL

Chase Reynolds RB Out Knee
Eugene Sims DE Out Knee
Todd Gurley RB Questionable Knee
Tre Mason RB Questionable Thigh
Daren Bates LB Probable Knee
Trumaine Johnson CB Probable Concussion

WAS

DeSean Jackson WR Out Hamstring
Justin Rogers CB Out Foot
Martrell Spaight LB Out Concussion
Jackson Jeffcoat LB Questionable Thigh
Tom Compton T Questionable Calf
Terrance Knighton DT Questionable Rib
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Quadricep
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Rib
Kory Lichtensteiger C Probable Finger
Trent Williams T Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 10
–
WAS 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:14 TD WAS (7:14) 31-M.Jones left tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 00:59 FG WAS (:59) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. STL 0 – WAS 10
  • Q2 03:07 TD WAS (3:07) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 88-P.Garcon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 0 – WAS 16
  • Q3 09:39 FG LA (9:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. STL 3 – WAS 17
  • Q3 07:09 TD LA (7:09) 5-N.Foles pass deep middle to 18-K.Britt for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LA-18-K.Britt, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. STL 9 – WAS 17
  • Q4 02:43 TD WAS (2:43) 31-M.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 10 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to WAS 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 3 yards (15-B.Marquez).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (9:46) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to LA 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-59-T.Plummer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to WAS 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to WAS 34, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 77%

    (:59) 3-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 19 for -1 yards (12-S.Bailey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:33) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to LA 36, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-57-N.Sundberg.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for 1 yard (54-B.Hager; 38-C.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for -1 yards (31-M.Alexander).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:29) 5-T.Way punts 18 yards to WAS 45, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:02) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to LA 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-59-T.Plummer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%

    (9:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:29) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to LA 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-51-W.Compton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (2:06) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to WAS 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-59-T.Plummer, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at WAS 17.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:28) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to WAS 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 23 for 10 yards (15-B.Marquez).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 12-S.Bailey [92-C.Baker].

    See the full breakdown →