Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 0

(12:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to WAS 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 28 for 3 yards (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model