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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for -1 yards (31-M.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model